AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
THIS AFTERNOON.  AREA RADARS SHOW AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF IH-20.  THIS IS 
IN GENERAL ALIGNMENT WITH THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE WEATHER MAPS SHOW A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT 
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE 
THE FRONT WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR 
AREA.  MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF THE 
SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM OF THE FRONT TO BE SEEN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE 
VALLEY.  IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES THIS 
EVENING WILL BE LARGELY BASED ON A LAST MINUTE GLANCE OF THE RADAR.

UNFORTUNATELY...IF YOU HAVE NOT SEEN RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF 
DAYS...IT LOOKS LIKE YOUR ODDS WILL BE GETTING NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR 
THE WEEKEND.  RIDGING...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED 
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA.  WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...WE SHOULD 
START TO DRY OUT /AND WARM UP/ THIS WEEKEND.  OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK COULD BE IN STORE 
FOR THE REGION.  GUIDANCE MAY BE WARMING US UP A LITTLE TOO 
QUICKLY...CONSIDERING THE GROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF 
THE REGION.  

AT ANY RATE...I HAVE LARGELY MAINTAINED THE ONGOING TREND IN THE 
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.  DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRYING 
OCCURS /AND HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS CAN MIX OUT/...WE MAY BE SEE HEAT 
INDICES ABOVE THE 105 HEAT ADVISORY CRITERION.  I HAVE MENTIONED 
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE AFTERNOON HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT 
WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANYTHING WITH THIS PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...SHOULD CONTINUE AS WE HEAD 
INTO MONDAY.  AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND 
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 
WEAK FRONT TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY.  UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT...THE FRONT MAY ONLY 
MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE IH-40 CORRIDOR.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A 
CONTINUATION OF THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
REGION. 

THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE 
WEEK.  THIS COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SEEN 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES/PARISHES FROM TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY 
ONWARD.  UNLESS YOU ARE LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET UNDERNEATH ONE OF THESE 
SHOWERS OR STORMS THOUGH...EXPECT GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS 
TO CONTINUE.

WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES 
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD.  /21/

&&

.AVIATION...
AS EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD AC DECK HAS HELPED TO KEEP CONVECTION DOWN 
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY.  JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS 
IN THE HIGH OVC WITH ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE AT THE TYR/GGG/SHV/MLU 
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS CAN BE HANDLED BEST 
WITH AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...SEEING SOME SHOWERS NEAR 
THE ELD TERMINAL AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE INCREASE IN 
COVERAGE AT THE TXK TERMINAL AS WELL. PREVAILING CB AT BOTH THE 
TXK/ELD TERMINALS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN CONVECTION 
SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MODEL CROSS 
SECTION SUPPORT US LOSING THE AC DECK OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS 
PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  98  76 100  76 /  30  10  10  10  10 
MLU  75  98  74 101  74 /  30  10  10  10  10 
DEQ  73  98  73 101  75 /  30  10  10  10  10 
TXK  74  97  75 100  75 /  30  10  10  10  10 
ELD  73  98  73 100  74 /  30  10  10  10  10 
TYR  75  98  75  99  76 /  20  10  10  10  10 
GGG  75  98  74 100  74 /  20  10  10  10  10 
LFK  74  98  74 100  74 /  20  10  10  10  10 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&